October 12, 2004

• TUESDAY POLITICS

  Here’s an article from the New York Times. You have to register online to get to its site but it’s free. Ready for the last round tomorrow night?

  Checking the Facts, in Advance
  By PAUL KRUGMAN
  Published: October 12, 2004
  It’s not hard to predict what President Bush, who sounds increasingly desperate, will say tomorrow. Here are eight lies or distortions you’ll hear, and the truth about each:

  Jobs
  Mr. Bush will talk about the 1.7 million jobs created since the summer of 2003, and will say that the economy is “strong and getting stronger.” That’s like boasting about getting a D on your final exam, when you flunked the midterm and needed at least a C to pass the course.

  Mr. Bush is the first president since Herbert Hoover to preside over a decline in payroll employment. That’s worse than it sounds because the economy needs around 1.6 million new jobs each year just to keep up with population growth. The past year’s job gains, while better news than earlier job losses, barely met this requirement, and they did little to close the huge gap between the number of jobs the country needs and the number actually available.

  Unemployment
  Mr. Bush will boast about the decline in the unemployment rate from its June 2003 peak. But the employed fraction of the population didn’t rise at all; unemployment declined only because some of those without jobs stopped actively looking for work, and therefore dropped out of the unemployment statistics. The labor force participation rate – the fraction of the population either working or actively looking for work – has fallen sharply under Mr. Bush; if it had stayed at its January 2001 level, the official unemployment rate would be 7.4 percent.

  The deficit
  Mr. Bush will claim that the recession and 9/11 caused record budget deficits. Congressional Budget Office estimates show that tax cuts caused about two-thirds of the 2004 deficit.

  The tax cuts
  Mr. Bush will claim that Senator John Kerry opposed “middle class” tax cuts. But budget office numbers show that most of Mr. Bush’s tax cuts went to the best-off 10 percent of families, and more than a third went to the top 1 percent, whose average income is more than $1 million.

  The Kerry tax plan
  Mr. Bush will claim, once again, that Mr. Kerry plans to raise taxes on many small businesses. In fact, only a tiny percentage would be affected. Moreover, as Mr. Kerry correctly pointed out last week, the administration’s definition of a small-business owner is so broad that in 2001 it included Mr. Bush, who does indeed have a stake in a timber company – a business he’s so little involved with that he apparently forgot about it.

  Fiscal responsibility
  Mr. Bush will claim that Mr. Kerry proposes $2 trillion in new spending. That’s a partisan number and is much higher than independent estimates. Meanwhile, as The Washington Post pointed out after the Republican convention, the administration’s own numbers show that the cost of the agenda Mr. Bush laid out “is likely to be well in excess of $3 trillion” and “far eclipses that of the Kerry plan.”

  Spending
  On Friday, Mr. Bush claimed that he had increased nondefense discretionary spending by only 1 percent per year. The actual number is 8 percent, even after adjusting for inflation. Mr. Bush seems to have confused his budget promises – which he keeps on breaking – with reality.

  Health care
  Mr. Bush will claim that Mr. Kerry wants to take medical decisions away from individuals. The Kerry plan would expand Medicaid (which works like Medicare), ensuring that children, in particular, have health insurance. It would protect everyone against catastrophic medical expenses, a particular help to the chronically ill. It would do nothing to restrict patients’ choices.

  By singling out Mr. Bush’s lies and misrepresentations, am I saying that Mr. Kerry isn’t equally at fault? Yes.

  Mr. Kerry sometimes uses verbal shorthand that offers nitpickers things to complain about. He talks of 1.6 million lost jobs; that’s the private-sector loss, partly offset by increased government employment. But the job record is indeed awful. He talks of the $200 billion cost of the Iraq war; actual spending is only $120 billion so far. But nobody doubts that the war will cost at least another $80 billion. The point is that Mr. Kerry can, at most, be accused of using loose language; the thrust of his statements is correct.

  Mr. Bush’s statements, on the other hand, are fundamentally dishonest. He is insisting that black is white, and that failure is success. Journalists who play it safe by spending equal time exposing his lies and parsing Mr. Kerry’s choice of words are betraying their readers.
  

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  Deep Thought: Sometimes I think the world has gone completely mad. And then I think, “Aw, who cares?” And then I think, “Hey, what’s for supper?”
  Today I am grateful for: Monitor wipes
  Guess the Movie: “I found some cigarettes. I found them all the way in the bottom of my pack. We’re still alive ’cause we’re smoking. ” Answer: The Blair Witch Project, 1999
  Polls Today: Kerry 280/Bush 254. (last day to register!) EVP: Mondays are always quiet and today is no exception. An Opinion Research poll in Arkansas breaks the tie there and puts Bush ahead by 9%. I don’t think Kerry really has much of a chance in Arkansas. The south, except for Florida, looks pretty solid for Bush, although there might be surprises in one or two border states. Kerry edged ahead again in Minnesota.
  End of Day: 8:50 pm
  + = Went to the bank and made arrangements for them to deal with my tiny investment portfolio, thereby getting it away from the crooks who had it before.
  - = Must do homework to be sure the bank doesn’t mess me over either.
  

  • 8:11 am
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